Update to Model

 There has been a MAJOR (minor) OVERHAUL (small change) to my AFL prediction model that you all know and love. 
  • It will now add 7.42 points to the expected margin for the home team, as opposed to 8.
  • It will now add 0.35 rating points for the winning team, as opposed to 0.725.
  • It will now divide last year's ratings by 3.3 for team ratings before round 1, as opposed to 3.25.
How much difference does this make?
Simply put; Not very much.
In the years since 2014, it now gets 1246/1812 (68.76%) tips correct instead of  1231/1812 (67.94%). It also now misses the margin by 28.004 points on average instead of 28.087 points. 

The predictions on my blog will be from this new updated model from Finals Week 3 2022 onwards, so enjoy that I guess. 

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