Gather Round + Update

Update

Hey What Snoo Thinks enthusiasts, just hopping in to thank you all for checking out this blog, and also to let you know about an update to my model. 
 
Firstly, team ratings will all be multiplied by 1.5. This part will not affect any predictions or results, as the rating comparison used for the predictions was also adjusted accordingly. The reason for this is that now if you subtract one team's rating from another, that is the predicted margin of that game if it were to be played at a neutral venue (which coincidentally most games are this round). For example if Team A - Team B = 2,  then Team A is expected to win by 2 points at a neutral venue.
 
The second update is that I have updated the home ground advantage system. Before I used the very naive method of simply adding around 7.5 points to the home team's expected margin, but of course this has obvious flaws. For example Collingwood vs Richmond at the MCG is not going to give Collingwood a home ground advantage, because it is both team's home ground. I have fixed this issue by not giving a home ground advantage if the game is played at a ground that is both (or neither) team's home ground.

The final update is just some miscellaneous changes to some variables, like home ground advantage, how much team ratings change by, standard deviation etc.
 
I made these changes because they perform better over the last 8 - 9 years than my old model did. Unfortunately these updates will cause 'The Year So Far' to be misaligned with previous blog posts, as my model runs the whole season every time causing it to make new predictions for old games.    

Thank you all a lot for reading my blog, I am planning to make a website soon (although with my zero knowledge of web design and Html/Js I don't expect it to be functional any time soon), so look forward to that. Enjoy the football this weekend everybody!

(Also, follow me on Twitter if you want to be notified every time I post to this blog! It's also the best place for suggestions and feedback along with comments and messaging me on discord @Snoo23#6139)

The Year So Far

23/36 correct 63.89% - 22.0 expected
Off by 27.92 on average (mae)
1.45418 total bits (See here for more info)

Tips

Adelaide vs Carlton
Adelaide by 1.99  52.48% - 47.52%

Fremantle vs Gold Coast
Fremantle by 4.07  55.08% - 44.92%

Richmond vs Sydney
Sydney by 2.27  47.17% - 52.83%

Brisbane vs North Melbourne
Brisbane by 21.58  75.06% - 24.94%

Essendon vs Melbourne
Melbourne by 18.64  27.95% - 72.05%

Port Adelaide vs Footscray
Port Adelaide by 14.2  67.19% - 32.81%

Geelong vs West Coast
Geelong by 38.52  88.64% - 11.36%

GWS vs Hawthorn
GWS by 10.62  63.04% - 36.96%

Collingwood vs St Kilda
Collingwood by 1.89  52.36% - 47.64%

Last Week's Results

Brisbane vs Collingwood - Collingwood by 2.35
North Melbourne vs Carlton - Carlton by 22.03
Adelaide vs Fremantle - Adelaide by 1.43
Richmond vs Footscray - Richmond by 12.62
St Kilda vs Gold Coast - St Kilda by 15.96
Sydney vs Port Adelaide - Sydney by 19.92
Essendon vs GWS - Essendon by 14.78
West Coast vs Melbourne - Melbourne by 21.1
Geelong vs Hawthorn - Geelong by 16.83

Ratings

1. Geelong: 18.09
2. Melbourne: 16.65
3. Sydney: 9.56
4. Collingwood: 9.22
5. St Kilda: 7.34
6. Richmond: 7.29
7. Carlton: 4.27
8. Brisbane: 3.28
9. Port Adelaide: 2.62
10. Fremantle: -1.2
11. Essendon: -1.98
12. Footscray: -2.28
13. Adelaide: -3.04
14. Gold Coast: -5.28
15. GWS: -7.6
16. Hawthorn: -18.22
17. North Melbourne: -18.3
18. West Coast: -20.43

Projections

Thanks a lot to Max Barry from Squiggle (A website full of computer tipping models like this one) for letting me use his design!
 
This is a projection of what position each team will finish in, how many wins they will have, and how likely they are to finish in each position.




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