Round 6 + Another update

Update

Hi, I updated my model again but more this time!
 
Basically all that's changed is instead of just having one rating for each team, I will have separate offensive/defensive ratings which are then compared to the oppositions offensive/defensive ratings to come up with a predicted margin and percentage.
 
Again 'The Year So Far' won't be aligned with past posts, but don't worry, this should be the last update for a while. Thanks again everyone for reading, I appreciate it!

The Year So Far

33/45 correct 73.33% - 28.1 expected
Off by 26.44 on average (mae)
4.08266 total bits (See here for more info)

Tips

Framantle vs Footscray
Fremantle by 7.89 59.95% - 40.05%

Port Adelaide vs West Coast 88.27% - 11.73%
Port Adelaide by 37.2

GWS vs Brisbane 38.18% - 61.82%
Brisbane by 9.41

Geelong vs Sydney 66.91% - 33.09%
Geelong by 13.69

Hawthorn vs Adelaide 31.07% - 68.93%
Adelaide by 15.45

Carlton vs St Kilda 46.27% - 53.73%
St Kilda by 2.93

Gold Coast vs North Melbourne 87.14% - 12.86%
Gold Coast by 35.47

Melbourne vs Richmond 60.33% - 39.67%
Melbourne by 8.2

Collingwood vs Essendon 63.01% - 36.99%
Collingwood by 10.4

Last Week's Results

Round 5 - 8/9 - 22.85 mae - 1.8291 bits

Adelaide vs Carlton - Adelaide by 3.8
Fremantle vs Gold Coast - Fremantle by 1.11
Richmond vs Sydney - Sydney by 6.47
Brisbane vs North Melbourne - Brisbane by 21.48
Essendon vs Melbourne - Melbourne by 17.51
Port Adelaide vs Footscray - Port Adelaide by 15.76
Geelong vs West Coast - Geelong by 40.98
GWS vs Hawthorn - GWS by 2.28
Collingwood vs St Kilda - Collingwood by 6.98

Ratings

Projections

Thanks a lot to Max Barry from Squiggle (A website full of computer tipping models like this one) for letting me use his design!
 
This is a projection of what position each team will finish in, how many wins they will have, and how likely they are to finish in each position.



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Round 7

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Update to Model

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