Round 7

Tips

St Kilda vs Port Adelaide @ MRVL 56.51% - 43.49%
St Kilda by 5.13

Brisbane vs Fremantle @ G 78.74% - 21.26%
Brisbane by 24.96

Sydney vs GWS @ SCG 84.95% - 15.05%
Sydney by 32.38

Footscray vs Hawthorn @ MRVL 82.39% - 17.61%
Footscray by 29.12

Melbourne vs North Melbourne @ MCG 93.58% - 6.42%
Melbourne by 47.59

West Coast vs Carlton @ OS 31.79% - 68.21%
Carlton by 14.82

Essendon vs Geelong @ MCG 32.31% - 67.69%
Geelong by 14.37

Richmond vs Gold Coast @ MRVL 59.31% - 40.69%
Richmond by 7.38

Adelaide vs Collingwood @ AO 56.19% - 43.81%
Adelaide by 4.87

Last Week's Results

Round 6 - 8/9 - 22.45 mae - 3.1993 bits

Fremantle vs Footscray - Fremantle by 7.89
Port Adelaide vs West Coast - Port Adelaide by 37.2
GWS vs Brisbane - Brisbane by 9.41
Geelong vs Sydney - Geelong by 13.69
Hawthorn vs Adelaide - Adelaide by 15.45
Carlton vs St Kilda - St Kilda by 2.93
Gold Coast vs North Melbourne - Gold Coast by 35.47
Melbourne vs Richmond - Melbourne by 8.2
Collingwood vs Essendon - Collingwood by 10.4

Ratings

Geelong - 2.123
Melbourne - 0.751
Collingwood - 0.729
Sydney - 0.715
Port Adelaide - 0.708
Brisbane - 0.513
Footscray - 0.384
Adelaide - 0.37
St Kilda - 0.334
Richmond - 0.219
Carlton - 0.097
Essendon - -0.004
Gold Coast - -0.356
Fremantle - -0.759
GWS - -1.061
Hawthorn - -1.211
West Coast - -1.592
North Melbourne - -1.959

Projections

Thanks a lot to Max Barry from Squiggle (A website full of computer tipping models like this one) for letting me use his design!
 
This is a projection of what position each team will finish in, how many wins they will have, and how likely they are to finish in each position.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Round 6 + Another update

Image
Update Hi, I updated my model again but more this time!   Basically all that's changed is instead of just having one rating for each team, I will have separate offensive/defensive ratings which are then compared to the oppositions offensive/defensive ratings to come up with a predicted margin and percentage.   Again 'The Year So Far' won't be aligned with past posts, but don't worry, this should be the last update for a while. Thanks again everyone for reading, I appreciate it! The Year So Far 33/45 correct 73.33% - 28.1 expected Off by 26.44 on average (mae) 4.08266 total bits (See here for more info) Tips Framantle vs Footscray Fremantle by 7.89 59.95% - 40.05% Port Adelaide vs West Coast 88.27% - 11.73% Port Adelaide by 37.2 GWS vs Brisbane 38.18% - 61.82% Brisbane by 9.41 Geelong vs Sydney 66.91% - 33.09% Geelong by 13.69 Hawthorn vs Adelaide 31.07% - 68.93% Adelaide by 15.45 Carlton vs St Kilda 46.27% - 53.73% St Kilda by 2.93 Gold Coast vs North Melbourne 87
Read more

Update to Model

 There has been a MAJOR (minor) OVERHAUL (small change) to my AFL prediction model that you all know and love.  It will now add 7.42 points to the expected margin for the home team, as opposed to 8. It will now add 0.35 rating points for the winning team, as opposed to 0.725. It will now divide last year's ratings by 3.3 for team ratings before round 1, as opposed to 3.25. How much difference does this make? Simply put; Not very much. In the years since 2014, it now gets 1246/1812 (68.76%) tips correct instead of  1231/1812 (67.94%). It also now misses the margin by 28.004 points on average instead of 28.087 points.  The predictions on my blog will be from this new updated model from Finals Week 3 2022 onwards, so enjoy that I guess. 
Read more