Finals Week 2

Melbourne vs Brisbane 

Sep 9 19:50 @M.C.G

Team Ratings
Melbourne: 14.34
Brisbane: 9.10 

Snoo thinks: Melbourne by 60
Snoo's code thinks: Melbourne by 16 (67.5%)

Melbourne dropped off significantly after their loss to Fremantle back in round 11, and they still haven't fully recovered. After their shellacking of Brisbane in round 23, they were favorites to beat Sydney in the qualifying finals, but their loss doesn't leave me confident in their flag push. That said, the two times Melbourne played Brisbane this year, Brisbane did a good impression of traffic cones leading to 64 and 58 point wins for the red and blue, and I'm tipping that to happen again. 

Collingwood vs Fremantle

Sep 10 19:25 @M.C.G

Team Ratings
Collingwood: 7.14
Fremantle: 7.97

Snoo thinks: Collingwood by 5
Snoo's code thinks: Collingwood by 7 (57.6%)

Even after Collingwood's loss to Geelong in the first week of finals, I still rate them very highly. Lots of models around (including mine) have Collingwood as the 8th-10th best team in the comp due to their close margins, but in my eyes, they are a league ahead of Brisbane, Freo, Richmond, etc. Collingwood do seem to have a knack for finding themselves in close games, though, and I think their clash with Freo will be no different.

Flag Chances

Geelong: 53.26%
Sydney: 27.98%
Melbourne: 10.32%
Brisbane: 3.13%
Collingwood: 2.94%
Fremantle: 2.37%

Team Ratings

1. Geelong: 23.33
2. Sydney: 18.27
3. Melbourne: 14.34
4. Richmond: 12.28
5. Brisbane: 9.1
6. Port Adelaide: 8.75
7. Fremantle: 7.97
8. Collingwood: 7.14
9. Footscray: 4.65
10. Carlton: 0.89
11. Gold Coast: -2.45
12. St. Kilda: -3.29
13. Hawthorn: -9.14
14. GWS: -9.55
15. Adelaide: -10.89
16. Essendon: -11.44
17. West Coast: -27.41
18. North Melbourne: -32.54

Last Week's Tips

Brisbane vs Richmond 51.01% 1 point
Melbourne vs Sydney 60.06% 9 points
Geelong vs Collingwood 83.7% 34 points
Fremantle vs Footscray 61.68% 10 points

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